New world meet old world
Good morning and Happy Wednesday. I want to thank all of you whom sent me my Happy Birthday message it was overwhelming and much appreciated.
I have been writing these market reports for over 25 years, it was originally called the Alpha & Omega report and was sent by fax to about 45 people. Some of those 45 sent it to their associates and the list grew. Then the internet and email took hold and the list grew to about 200, and I didn’t tie up the fax all day. Today with LinkedIn and over 8000 followers I typically get 5000 to 10,000 views to over 30,000 depending on the week. We can see advancements in technology can really propel your message, product and customers into orbit. The way I gather information for my report has also evolved, more information transmitted instantaneously from around the globe. What has not changed for me is the ability to assimilate all of this information into accurate market reports and trends. I do this by speaking, emailing and texting to judge supply and demand throughout the supply chain. I am not infallible, but I have been correct many more times than I have been wrong in the last 25 years.
This past week I saw a market report from a large produce buying company, and I mistakenly deposited my 2 cents and contradicted a few of their items. I was notified by one of their customers that this was a billion-dollar company and was given the reasons they were correct.
Well hindsight being perfect a week later all I can say is Paul Manfre 1, Billion-dollar company 0. They missed the fact that although prices were high they did not see the demand was falling off which always leads to lower prices and greater avaiability.
I am not gloating over this fact I just helps me make a point. I get my information the old fashion way, yes, I use the current technologies to help me formulate an opinion but good old up to the minute supply and demand, not a computer screen that tells me what happened last week, month or year has the same impact as today. I am not being condescending but some of the conversations I have with high level, supposedly produce professionals make my head explode, for example,
We want to put x on sale for $x Why? Because last year we put X on sale. Yes but we had 20 inches of rain this year and there wont be enough x and prices will be much higher. Or I need 77 tomatoes for this DC? Ok I’ll give you 80, they are 80 per skid. No I only need 77, that’s what the computer says. I am going to write a book someday with all of these statements, I have thousands.
I don’t want to beat a dead horse but like I said hundreds of times we need real produce people back in produce from top to bottom. Less does not equal more, more equals more.
RED PEPPERS- This market will stay depressed for at least 1 more week and most likely 2. The good news is that many colored bells are being cut green because that market is much higher, and we should see a big drop in colored bells in 2/3 weeks due to this fact. The bad news is….
GREEN PEPPERS- More volume means lower prices. This market will be lower, but I do not believe it will crash.
GREEN & YELLOW SQUASH – Both these markets are lower. New supplies but no new demand
CUCUMBERS – We are almostat the bottom here. They will be steady and maybe a bounce of the bottom later in the week.
EGGPLANTS -This market will be lower
TOMATOES – We need divine intervention to get off the minimum.
AVOCADOS – Super bowl pull done, prices are searching for a bottom. Plenty of supplies.
LIMES – Get them while they are cheap.
HARD SQUASH – Market is steady on Acorn, Butternut and Spaghetti, lower on Kabocha.
Most of the country is in a deep freeze for the next few days which will decrease demand greatly. None of the frigid temperature look like they will affect the growing areas, if they do you can throw this report out the window. Have a great week and remember, I love the produce business and the people in it. My criticism and accolades are only to make us all better and not to offend. Albeit I have been know to offend people from time to time but only with the truth. Have a great day and a wonderful week.